Another year has arrived and as we take down the holiday decorations and try to stay on track with our new year’s resolutions, we’re also looking ahead to what’s on the horizon for Long Island’s real estate market. We asked agents, what do you expect will be the biggest forces shaping the Long Island housing market in 2026 — and how different (or not so different) it will feel from 2025? How do you expect buyer and seller behavior to shift in Nassau and western Suffolk counties this year, particularly around pricing expectations, timing, and negotiation? Do you anticipate any changes to inventory?
Molly Deegan
Branch Real Estate Group
Sea Cliff
Looking ahead to 2026, I expect the Long Island housing market to feel more measured than 2025, but still fundamentally strong. The biggest forces shaping the market will continue to be mortgage rates, affordability, and inventory, but we’re moving out of the hyper-reactive phase and into a more strategic one. Across Long Island, buyers are becoming more intentional. They’re focused on total monthly costs — not just price — and they’re less willing to overextend unless a home truly checks every box. As a result, pricing matters more than ever. Homes that are positioned correctly are still moving quickly, while aspirational pricing is leading to longer days on market and renewed negotiation. Seller behavior is shifting too. Many homeowners who stayed put over the last few years are finally ready to act, which should lead to a modest increase in inventory, not a surge. This creates a healthier, more balanced dynamic — especially in mid-range price points. Negotiations in 2026 will feel calmer and more rational than in 2025. We’re seeing fewer bidding wars, more thoughtful offer structures, and smoother timelines overall. Bottom line: 2026 won’t feel soft — it will feel smarter. Buyers and sellers who understand their local market and price with intention will have the greatest success.
Glen Fox
Douglas Elliman
Long Beach
Looking ahead to 2026, the Long Island housing market —particularly in Nassau and western Suffolk — will feel more like an evolution of 2025 than a dramatic shift. Interest rates will remain a major influence, but buyer psychology has changed: even modest rate movement can impact timing and pricing sensitivity. Any rate relief could unlock meaningful pent-up demand. Inventory is expected to remain constrained, though we anticipate modest increases as more move-up sellers re-enter the market and aging housing stock turns over. This won’t result in a flood of listings, but it should create slightly more choice in the starter and mid-market segments. Buyer behavior continues to grow more deliberately. Buyers are increasingly data-driven, less emotional, and more willing to walk away if value isn’t clear. Pricing will need to be realistic and supported by current comps, not last year’s highs. Well-priced, well-presented homes should still move quickly, while over-priced or renovation-heavy properties will face longer days on market and stronger negotiation. Negotiations in 2026 are likely to center on inspections, appraisal protection, and credits rather than headline price. Overall, the market is maturing — rewarding preparation, transparency, and smart pricing over speculation.
Samantha Raimond
Fire Island Sales & Rentals
Ocean Beach
Looking ahead to 2026, I don’t expect the Long Island housing market to feel dramatically different from 2025, but there will likely be some important shifts in behavior. Slowly declining interest rates may bring more buyers back into the market across Long Island generally, but on Fire Island, where a large portion of buyers pay cash, the market remains less sensitive to rate changes. Activity on the Island tends to be driven more by seasonal demand and location than by financing conditions. On the seller side, Fire Island has seen fairly steady pricing, even as parts of the market experienced stalled listings and some price cuts. That consistency should continue into 2026, especially for well-located homes that align with seasonal demand. Buyers will likely continue to be thoughtful and cautious, weighing pricing, condition, and timing carefully. Timing will remain important, especially on Fire Island, where demand is highly seasonal, with well-priced homes in good condition moving quickly, while others may need adjustments. In 2025, total sales were down, and some homes sat on the market or required price cuts because they were still priced based on peak values. Many deals were made with cash buyers or motivated buyers ready to move quickly. Proper pricing will remain crucial in 2026. Overpriced homes risk sitting and ultimately selling for less than they could have achieved, while well-priced homes continue to attract fast and smooth deals.
Rosa Troia
Daniel Gale Sotheby’s International Realty
Manhassett
Looking ahead to 2026, the Long Island housing market will continue to be shaped by interest rate stabilization, lifestyle priorities, and an ongoing imbalance between housing supply and buyer demand. As market activity normalizes, conditions are expected to continue favoring sellers, particularly in Nassau and western Suffolk Counties and in communities with convenient amenities and prime locations. Buyers are expected to approach the market with greater discipline. More than ever, timing will be essential, and buyers willing to offer flexibility are likely to be prioritized. Demand will remain strongest for properties offering maintained functional yet intimate interior and exterior spaces. Seller expectations are also evolving. Success in 2026 will rely on precision, preparation, and preparedness. Homes that are intentionally prepared, strategically priced, and thoughtfully marketed are expected to perform well. Negotiations may feel more balanced overall, though leverage is expected to remain with sellers, as prime locations are increasingly defined by individual buyer preferences and lifestyle needs. Nationally, New York City boroughs remain among the most expensive places to live, prompting many residents to continuously reassess long-term financial decisions. Long Island has historically benefited from this dynamic, appealing to those who make choices in favor of homeownership, the elimination of city tax exposure and private school tuition installments, and the opportunity to build equity while maintaining access to work and New York City recreation within an hour, and gaining space, stability, and a community-focused lifestyle.
Catherine Davis
The Gold Coast Team
SERHANT.
While headlines across the country point to a softening housing market, Long Island has remained a strong seller’s market, and I don’t expect that to change in 2026. The fundamentals here are different, particularly in Nassau County and western Suffolk, where inventory remains extremely tight. The two biggest forces I’m watching are interest rates and the potential ripple effects of Mayor Mamdani’s win in New York City. If there is any meaningful migration out of Manhattan — driven by policy concerns, taxes, or lifestyle preferences — that demand will likely land on Long Island, further pressuring already limited supply. Even a modest uptick in city-to-suburb movement could intensify competition quickly. Interest rates remain the other major driver. Many homeowners continue to sit on ultra-low COVID-era mortgages and are reluctant to move. Some rate relief may bring incremental activity back to the market, but in my view rates would need to fall below 5% to meaningfully unlock inventory, and that does not feel realistic in the near term. As a result, sellers will continue to price confidently in well-located, desirable areas, while buyers remain cautious and value driven. Well-priced homes should move quickly, and negotiations will continue to favor sellers. In this environment, having a real estate advisor who is a true data strategist will be essential.
This article appears in the January issue of Long Island Home in the Long Island Press. Tap this link to read the full digital version. For previous Real Estate Roundtable articles, click here.
